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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 212 (Idalia) , Major: 212 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 212 (Idalia) Major: 212 (Idalia)
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#514708 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 AM 30.May.2012)
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BERYL IS
LOSING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS A CONVECTIVE BAND WELL
REMOVED AND EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD
AS NORMALLY OCCURS DURING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT AND THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OVER WATER
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND. WITH INCREASING SHEAR
AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD
THAT BERYL WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AS IT
MOVES OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WINDS COULD INCREASE A LITTLE
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OVER
WATER.

BERYL HAS ACCELERATED AND IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ABOUT 17 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER BERYL NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED. SINCE AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED...THERE IS
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE U.S. DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND ACCELERATE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 34.2N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 35.5N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 31/1200Z 37.0N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 01/0000Z 38.5N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 01/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1200Z 38.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA