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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#5152 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 14.Aug.2004)
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
2100Z SAT AUG 14 2004

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING
THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...CHESAPEAKE
BAY...DELAWARE BAY....NEW YORK HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. AT 5
PM...WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED INLAND NEAR 36.0N 77.0W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 26 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 77.0W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 78.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 39.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 42.7N 70.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 44.9N 66.7W...EXTRATOPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 46.5N 62.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 48.5N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 77.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

FORECASTER LAWRENCE