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#92L with 40% Odds. Likely to Recurve. #Ophelia Heading to Ireland as a Powerful Post-Tropical Hurricane-Force Storrm
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Nate) , Major: 26 (Maria) Florida - Any: 36 (Irma) Major: 36 (Irma)
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#51928 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 PM 15.Oct.2005)
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z SAT OCT 15 2005

...CORRECTED FOR BIN NUMBER...BIN 4 INSTEAD OF 3

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAYBE REQUIRED FOR
FOR GRAND CAYMAN LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.8W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
EYE DIAMETER 60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.8W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA