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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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#52108 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 16.Oct.2005)
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z MON OCT 17 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.6W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.7N 80.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 80.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 81.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 83.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...115NE 100SE 100SW 115NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 79.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB