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#52262 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 17.Oct.2005)
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

THE LAST RECON FIX AT 2130Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 989 MB...
AND THE ONBOARD RADAR REVEALED A DEVELOPING SMALL RAGGED EYE
FEATURE. A SERIES OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY SSMI AND SSMIS
DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS ALSO INDICATES AT LEAST A MID-LEVEL
EYE-LIKE FEATURE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING THIS EVENING
OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION... BUT WITHOUT ENOUGH
CONSISTENCY TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM IS INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. A
DISJOINTED AND BROAD BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAINS WELL REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... BUT THERE IS NO DATA
TO INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING THAT FAR FROM
THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z HAVE COME UP A BIT
TO 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. GIVEN THESE
ESTIMATES AND THE STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. THIS REMAINS AT THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED LAG BETWEEN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND SURFACE WINDS
INDICATED BY THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO WILMA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO HELP GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY.

WILMA STOPPED LOSING LATITUDE EARLIER THIS EVENING WHEN IT PULLED UP
NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT
HAS BEGUN A WESTWARD DRIFT... AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION
IS 270/2. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO
THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT SAME DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY
PERIOD. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT WILMA WILL RECURVE AFTER
ABOUT 72 HOURS THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... HOWEVER... THE
MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON HOW SHARPLY WILMA WILL TURN AND HOW FAST
IT WILL MOVE AFTER RECURVATURE. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW MUCH
FASTER AFTER RECURVATURE... BUT THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ONLY
BE ADJUSTED PART OF THE WAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING WHILE WILMA REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA... AND IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THEREAFTER... INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD
HALT INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING... BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO WEAKEN WILMA BENEATH HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE
FIVE-DAY TIME FRAME.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.8N 80.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 80.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 81.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 83.7W 95 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 85.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 82.5W 85 KT