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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Nate) , Major: 34 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#5231 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 15.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

CHARLEY IS JUST BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WITH ABOUT THE ONLY
EVIDENCE OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS REMAINING BEING THE RELATIVELY
SMALL WIND CORE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS POSSESSED SINCE IT FIRST
FORMED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1012 MB ARE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CHARLEY SHOULD BECOME
COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HR OR LESS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/26. CHARLEY SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN
A FRONTAL ZONE IN 72-96 HR.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 40.8N 73.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 43.5N 69.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 16/0600Z 45.5N 65.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 16/1800Z 47.3N 59.9W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 17/0600Z 48.4N 55.1W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL