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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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#52341 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:56 AM 18.Oct.2005)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
1500Z TUE OCT 18 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 80.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......105NE 75SE 50SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 50SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 80.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 80.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 81.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.7N 82.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.6N 84.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 80.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN