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#52431 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 19.Oct.2005)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0900Z WED OCT 19 2005

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 82.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 884 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 82.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 82.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 83.4W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N 85.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.5N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 33.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 82.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

FORECASTER AVILA