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#CINDY Loses Tropical Cyclone status. However, flooding rain and isolated tornado potential continues, pushing east
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 259 (Matthew) , Major: 4261 (11 y 8 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 295 (Hermine) Major: 4261 (11 y 8 m) (Wilma)
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#52474 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 19.Oct.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT
PENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST
ESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT
SPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER
WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL.
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A
FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...AS
WILMA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LOW...THE WIND FIELD OF
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SHOWING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 5 DAYS.

PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN
MOTION OF 300/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND
NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND.
IN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN
FOUR DAYS. THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET...BOTH OLDER
RUNS...DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS. THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST
POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN
THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.4N 83.2W 150 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 84.0W 150 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.1N 85.1W 150 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.9W 145 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 86.2W 135 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 39.0N 69.0W 80 KT