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#52547 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:11 PM 19.Oct.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT WILMA HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 892 MB INSIDE THE 4 N
MI WIDE EYE...ALONG WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140-150 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
CLOUD-FILLED. ADDITIONALLY...A 00Z SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE
INNER EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED AS A 40 N MI WIDE OUTER EYEWALL BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED
TO 135 KT. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE WILMA
AROUND 05Z-06Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY WOBBLY 300/7. IN THE SHORT TERM...A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF WILMA SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER
24-36 HR...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. S.. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW WILMA TO TURN NORTHWARD...WHILE THE STRONGER
TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RECURVE THE STORM INTO THE WESTERLIES.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR EARLIER
NO-STALL RECURVATURE SCENARIO...THUS INCREASING THE AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH 72-96 HR. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE IS SLOWER FOR THE FIRST 96 HR THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48
HR...THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 48-96 HR.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS SLOWER FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

WILMA SHOULD UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR. THE FIRST 36 HR OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE PREMISE THAT WILMA WILL RE-INTENSIFY WHEN THE CYCLE IS OVER.
THERE IS A CHANCE WILMA COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
BEFORE THE EYEWALL CYCLE ENDS. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR ONCE WILMA REACHES THE THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THAT COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THAT BEING SAID...WILMA IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH FLORIDA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER PASSAGE OVER
FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EVEN
COOLER WATER. THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES THAT COULD MAKE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY OF WILMA. THE FIRST IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN OR THE INTERACTION WITH THE
PENINSULA IN THE FORECAST CLOSE APPROACH. A LANDFALL WOULD RESULT
IN A WEAKER STORM...WHILE INTERACTION COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE SECOND IS POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND PHASING WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AFTER 96 HR. SHOULD
THIS HAPPEN...WILMA COULD BECOME A POWERFUL STORM EITHER OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OR THE NORTHEASTERN U. S..

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 18.1N 84.3W 135 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 18.8N 85.2W 135 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 19.8N 86.0W 145 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 20.8N 86.5W 145 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 21.8N 86.6W 125 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 24.0N 84.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 27.0N 80.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 38.0N 70.5W 65 KT