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A quiet week ahead in the Atlantic tropics.
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 262 (Matthew) , Major: 4264 (11 y 8 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 298 (Hermine) Major: 4264 (11 y 8 m) (Wilma)
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#52716 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 21.Oct.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

WILMA IS BEING TRACKED BY THE CANCUN RADAR...NOAA BUOY 42056...AND
BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER DEFINED WITH A
RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A LARGE EYE. THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IN THE EYE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 929 MB AND SO FAR...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB ARE
130 KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT JUSTIFY AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS
BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE EYEWALL THESE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING AND HAVE NOT BEEN SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT YET. SINCE THE
EYE IS BECOMING MORE DISTINCT AND IS SHRINKING...SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER...THE
EFFECTS OF LAND AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE WILMA TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

WILMA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS.
BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...TRACK MODELS
MOVE WILMA SLOWLY AND IN ALL DIRECTIONS DURING 24 TO 36 HOUR
PERIOD...MAKING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
NEVERTHERLESS...THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR LITTLE OR ERRATIC MOTION
OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN OR THE ADJACENT WATERS UNTIL THE
WESTERLIES EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND CARRY WILMA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
BEYOND 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY THE
RECURVATURE TOWARD FLORIDA PROLONGING THE AGONIZING WAIT. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IT GIVES TIME FOR THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF LAND AND SHEAR. IN FACT...THE GFDL MODEL REFLECTS THE
SLOW MOTION AND HAS A WEAKENED WILMA JUST WEST OF HAVANA CUBA
BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. HOWEVER...IF THE EYE REMAINS OFFSHORE EAST OF
YUCATAN LIKE SUGGESTED BY THE LAST RUN OF THE UK MODEL...WILMA
COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BE MORE UNCERTAIN
THAN USUAL.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 20.0N 86.2W 130 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 86.6W 140 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 21.2N 87.1W 115 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/1800Z 21.6N 87.5W 115 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 87.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 36.0N 70.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL