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#52781 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 21.Oct.2005)
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL OVER COZUMEL...
...CENTER COULD MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN TONIGHT...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE OVER COZUMEL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WILMA HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY BEING
EXPERIENCED IN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF YUCATAN.
CANCUN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG RAINBANDS OVER COZUMEL AND
CANCUN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH... 230 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE WILMA
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES... 325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 62 MPH... 100 KM/HR... AND 31 FOOT SEAS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...20.2 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB