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#52785 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:07 AM 21.Oct.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

WHETHER DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND OR SOME OTHER FACTORS... THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION BRIEFLY WEAKENED
EARLIER THIS MORNING... BUT THAT DID NOT LAST LONG. THE RING OF
VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECONSTITUTED AROUND THE ENTIRE 30 N MI
WIDE EYE... WHICH HAS BECOME A LITTLE CLEARER AND WARMER IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CANCUN RADAR DEPICTS A VERY SOLID OUTER
EYEWALL OVER COZUMEL... AND THE INNER EYEWALL IS LIKELY WEAKER BUT
PERHAPS NOT AS WEAK AS IT SEEMS ON RADAR DUE TO ATTENUATION.
PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM AMSR-E AND AMSU DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS DEPICT THE OUTER EYEWALL AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 45 N MI...
AND EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA CONTAIN WIND MAXIMA AT RADII OF ABOUT 20
AND 45 N MI. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL WILL CONTRACT
AND LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM... BUT EYEWALLS WITH
THIS LARGE OF A DIAMETER SOMETIMES REMAIN STEADY-STATE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z DID NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE CURRENT
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 125 KT... BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE RING REFORMED.

WILMA IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
MEXICO AND A MORE EXTENSIVE RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SEEMED TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE UNTIL VERY
RECENTLY... WHEN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SLOWED. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW NORTHWESTWARD...325/4...AND THE SHORT TERM
MOTION MIGHT BE EVEN SLOWER. 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THIS MORNING'S
NOAA G-IV JET SURVEILLANCE MISSION INDICATE PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
MORE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN CONTAINED IN THE
SHORT-TERM FORECASTS FROM THE 06Z MODELS... SO THE SLOWER MOTION
NOW OBSERVED IS NOT SURPRISING. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THE CENTER OF WILMA TO MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN TODAY... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON HOW LONG WILMA WILL SPEND OVER LAND... AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHILE ADJUSTED WESTWARD AND SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...REMAINS TO THE EAST OF MOST OF
THE MODELS AND KEEPS WILMA ON LAND FOR LESS THAN 18 HOURS.
OBVIOUSLY... A LONGER STAY OVER YUCATAN COULD CAUSE MORE WEAKENING
THAN FORECAST...BUT THE OPPOSITE IS ALSO TRUE.

IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. FORTUNATELY FOR THE SAKE OF BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS... THE NOGAPS NO LONGER KEEPS WILMA IN THE
CARIBBEAN FOR FIVE DAYS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINING
MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS BEING IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3-5. HOWEVER...
THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS REMAINS QUITE LARGE... AND BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE IMPACTS ON FLORIDA REMAIN VERY
UNCERTAIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN STEADILY WEAKENING WILMA OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER... IF WILMA DOES
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME OVER YUCATAN... IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST WHEN IT CROSSES FLORIDA.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 20.2N 86.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 20.8N 87.0W 135 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/1200Z 21.3N 87.4W 105 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/0000Z 21.8N 87.4W 105 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 22.3N 86.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 29.5N 77.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 39.0N 67.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL