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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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#52920 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 21.Oct.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

THE EYE OF WILMA IS SLOWLY MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EVEN BEFORE LANDFALL...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE DECREASING AND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STARTING TO
RISE. SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMING AND THE
EYE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. THERE WAS A SURFACE WIND OF 137 KT FROM
AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE EAST OF THE CENTER AROUND 23Z. WHILE THIS
SURFACE WIND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY EITHER THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OR
THE NORMAL DROPSONDE ANALYSIS PROCEEDURES...IT AND A COUPLE OF 127
KT SURFACE WINDS FROM EARLIER DROPS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THAT
WILMA MIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN 120 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON THIS AND THE DECAY SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 120 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 330/3. WILMA IS CURRENTLY IN A COL
AREA BETWEEN TWO SEGMENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HR
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...A POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WILMA WILL CROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 60-72 HR...ALTHOUGH THE NOGAPS IS STILL A
LITTLE SLOWER. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHICH PART OF
FLORIDA THE CENTER WILL CROSS...WITH THE GFDL AND GFS POINTING MORE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS CHARLOTTE HARBOR...AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF
POINTING MORE TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE
FIRST 96 HR...AND LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS FLORIDA...ALL
INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF WILMA AND MAKE APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE FIRST QUESTION IS
HOW STRONG WILL WILMA BE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUESTION COMPLICATED BY THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IT IS
UNDERGOING AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
CALLS FOR LESS TIME OVER YUCATAN THAN EARLIER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS WILMA EMERGING OVER THE GULF AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ONCE OVER THE GULF...THERE
IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FROM 24-48 HR FOR WILMA TO RE-INTENSIFY
AS IT PASSES OVER THE LOOP CURRENT. AFTER 48 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
WILMA...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR WILMA TO REACH 95 KT BEFORE THE SHEAR HITS...AND IT WILL
PROBABLY REACH FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. WILMA SHOULD
WEAKEN DURING AFTER AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
OVER THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 96-120 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 20.8N 86.9W 120 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 21.2N 87.1W 100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/0000Z 21.7N 87.2W 90 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 23/1200Z 22.3N 86.9W 95 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 23.5N 85.4W 95 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 80.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 35.0N 71.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/0000Z 45.0N 59.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL