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#53143 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 22.Oct.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE CENTER OF WILMA HAS MOVED OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...WITH MAXIMUM 700
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT 30-35 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE
PLANE ALSO REPORTED THE REMAINS OF AN INNER EYEWALL...AND AN OUTER
EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER VARYING BETWEEN 60-80 N MI. SINCE THE
CENTER LEFT THE COAST... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COOLING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER EYEWALLS...ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION TO JUSTIFY
INCREASING THE WINDS. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAWINSONDE
DATA SHOW THAT THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. THIS
TROUGH SHOULD TURN WILMA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HR...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE
GENERAL TRACK OF WILMA...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHERE IN
FLORIDA THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL. THE 18Z GFS IS WELL TO THE
LEFT...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WHILE THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL TO THE RIGHT...CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO CROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
18Z GFDL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. WILMA
SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC...
AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD AT HIGH LATITUDE AFTER 96 HR.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. WILMA IS
CURRENTLY TRYING TO FINISH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT BEGAN
ALMOST 48 HR AGO. THE LARGE SIZE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL ARGUES
AGAINST RAPID STRENGTHENING...EVEN THOUGH THE EYE WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOOP CURRENT. AFTER 24 HR...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G4 JET SHOW THAT
DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR IS LURKING JUST WEST OF WILMA AND COULD BE
ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM NEAR THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFDL CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING...BRINGING THE STORM TO 95
KT NEAR LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE A
BLEND OF THE GFDL AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
WILMA TO 100 KT IN 24 HR AND THEN WEAKENING A LITTLE BEFORE
LANDFALL. WILMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT COULD HIT AS A
CATEGORY THREE. AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD QUICKLY
WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WARNING AND WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMAS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 21.8N 86.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 86.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 24.0N 84.6W 100 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 26.3N 81.5W 90 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 77.0W 75 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 26/0000Z 41.0N 66.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/0000Z 46.0N 55.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL