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| #532733 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:53 PM 08.Aug.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 400 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012 ERNESTO CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 40 KT. RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...THE AMOUNT OF RE-STRENGTHENING SHOULD DEPEND MAINLY ON HOW LONG THE CYCLONE STAYS OVER THE WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT ERNESTO WILL MOVE BACK OVER LAND IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS AND THEREFORE SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY. AFTER ACCELERATING TO NEAR 13 KT OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO BE SLOWING AND THE INTI AL MOTION IS ABOUT 270/11. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO...AND A LITTLE MORE DECELERATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL PREDICTION. THE GFS FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT BASIN. THAT UNUSUAL SCENARIO IS BEING DISMISSED AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 18.9N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 18.9N 93.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 18.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0600Z 18.2N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/1800Z 18.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
