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#53274 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:12 AM 23.Oct.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

WILMA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7
KT... WHICH IS A MERE PREVIEW OF THE GRADUAL ACCELERATION EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
SITUATED ROUGHLY OVER IOWA IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
DEEPEN SOME AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO... WHICH WILL PUSH WILMA NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING
PACE. THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE FLORIDA
LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA... BUT STILL WITH
SOME VARIATION IN BOTH THE SPEED AND PATH. THE GFDL IS THE
SOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION... AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE PERHAPS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH WITH NEGLIGIBLE
CHANGE IN THE TIMING... AND IT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON
THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND
FIELD... AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM
THE CENTER.

THE LAST RECON FIX AT ABOUT 12Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE 961
MB... WHICH HAD REMAINED STEADY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT IS ALMOST IN THE CENTER AT THIS HOUR AND WILL PROVIDE
UPDATES ON THE PRESSURE AND WINDS. FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 85 KT GIVEN THE LIMITED CHANGES IN STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90
KT. INNER CORE CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION DO SEEM TO BE ON A
GRADUAL INCREASE. AS WILMA PASSES OVER THE LOOP CURRENT
TODAY...AND WHILE THE WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH... SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS... AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
FORECASTS A STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL... ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE
OVERESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF SHEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL AND AS WILMA CROSSES FLORIDA... SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. WHILE THE BEST ESTIMATE
OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS CATEGORY TWO...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT
WILMA COULD REACH FLORIDA AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 22.7N 85.8W 85 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 23.7N 84.5W 95 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 25.8N 81.5W 90 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 29.5N 77.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 35.1N 72.4W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1200Z 45.0N 64.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1200Z 48.5N 55.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/1200Z 50.0N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL