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| #541207 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 08.Sep.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LESLIE DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER CORE AND MOST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING AND REPORTED THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ABOUT 55 KNOTS...AND THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 988 MB. SINCE LESLIE IS STILL FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM WATER AHEAD OF LESLIE...AND AS SOON AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THESE WATERS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LESLIE TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS WILL INCREASE. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR SO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE LESLIE TO RECURVE AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IN FACT IS VERY TIGHT...REMAINS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION... WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 28.6N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 31.2N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 32.8N 61.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 34.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 40.5N 58.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 45.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z 47.0N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
