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| #541882 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 10.Sep.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 500 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH...A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS AND A NEARBY SHIP REPORT INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS WINDS OF 60 KNOTS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW THAT THE WINDS ARE DECREASING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ASYMMETRY OF THE WINDS AND THE RAIN SHIELD SUGGEST THAT LESLIE IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE LESLIE REACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY TUESDAY. ONCE LESLIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... IT WILL REMAIN A VERY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LESLIE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LEVEL JET EAST OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO CROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 40.0N 59.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 44.4N 56.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 51.5N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0600Z 58.0N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1800Z 62.5N 34.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1800Z 62.5N 17.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
