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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#6205 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 27.Aug.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
1500Z FRI AUG 27 2004

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 49.0W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 65SE 65SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 49.0W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 48.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.8N 50.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 52.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.0N 53.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.9N 55.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.2N 58.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 115SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 21.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 49.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART