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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#6259 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 PM 27.Aug.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
0300Z SAT AUG 28 2004

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 50.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 308 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 50.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 50.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.2N 51.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.3N 53.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.1N 54.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.8N 56.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.9N 60.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.1N 65.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 23.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 50.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

FORECASTER JARVINEN