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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#6300 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 28.Aug.2004)
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2004

...FRANCES SLOWS DOWN WHILE STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT 740 MILES
...1190 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND FRANCES COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER BY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.4 N... 51.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART