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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#6350 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 28.Aug.2004)
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004

...FRANCES STRENGTHENS INTO THE SECOND CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE OF
THE 2004 ATLANTIC SEASON...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST OR ABOUT 690
MILES...1110 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FRANCES COULD REACH NEAR
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 52.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART