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#636184 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:20 AM 04.Oct.2013)
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 88.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 88.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 88.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.6N 89.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.2N 89.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.6N 89.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.8N 89.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 36.0N 80.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 88.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN