Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 69 (Nate) , Major: 87 (Maria) Florida - Any: 97 (Irma) Major: 97 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#6397 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 28.Aug.2004)
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR FRANCES ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE LAST
FORECAST CYCLE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES
TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER MOTION IN THE EARLY FORECAST
PERIODS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POSITIONS.

FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD
REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 18.3N 53.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.8N 54.5W 120 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.4N 56.3W 125 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 19.8N 58.6W 125 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 20.1N 61.1W 125 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 21.2N 66.3W 125 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 22.4N 70.6W 125 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT