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#6435 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 29.Aug.2004)
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

FRANCES IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING HURRICANE AND IF WE FAST FORWARDED
BACK TO LAST YEAR I WOULD THINK I WAS LOOKING AT ISABEL. INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FOR FRANCES REMAIN NEAR 115 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES
TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY PERIODS APPEARS
TO BE HOW THEY HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ITS
ORIENTATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY
PERIODS ARE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS.

FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD
REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 18.6N 54.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 19.0N 55.4W 120 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 57.4W 120 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 19.9N 59.8W 120 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 20.3N 62.3W 120 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 21.5N 67.3W 120 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 22.8N 71.4W 125 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 25.0N 75.0W 125 KT