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#6617 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 AM 30.Aug.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
0900Z MON AUG 30 2004

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND SABA. ST MARTIN AND
ST BARTHELEMY MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH AND NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 57.3W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 30SW 75NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 45SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 57.3W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 56.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.1N 59.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.6N 62.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.2N 64.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.0N 67.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 24.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 27.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 57.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN