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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#6639 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:28 AM 30.Aug.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
1500Z MON AUG 30 2004

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND SABA. THE GOVERNMENT
OF FRANCE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST MARTIN AND ST
BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR VIEQUES IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
BRITISH AND NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST
JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE ISLAND OF CULEBRA.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 58.7W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 45SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 58.7W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 58.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.4N 60.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 45SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.9N 63.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.6N 66.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.5N 68.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 25.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 27.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 58.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH