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#6641 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 30.Aug.2004)
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

THE LAST RECON MISSION HAD 107 KT WINDS OUTBOUND IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT EYEWALL. THIS DOES NOT QUITE SUPPORT A MAXIMUM SURFACE
WIND OF 105 KT....BUT ON THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
HURRICANE IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...SO THE INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 105 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...
AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THEREFORE
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FRANCES HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ABOUT
275/11. FRANCES IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT WILL
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOW MUCH
THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IS CRITICAL FOR THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF
THIS HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE GFDL MODEL
FORECAST TRACK HAS GENERALLY BEEN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN.

IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A
POINT AND FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE
ERRORS OF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 19.3N 58.7W 105 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 19.4N 60.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 19.9N 63.5W 110 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.6N 66.2W 115 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 21.5N 68.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 23.5N 73.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 25.5N 76.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 78.5W 115 KT