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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#6754 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 30.Aug.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
0300Z TUE AUG 31 2004

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 61.4W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 170SE 170SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 61.4W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 60.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.1N 63.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.9N 66.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.8N 69.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.0N 71.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.7N 75.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 28.0N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 61.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART