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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#7044 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:27 PM 01.Sep.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
0300Z THU SEP 02 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOME OR ALL OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THURSDAY MORNING. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 72.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT.......120NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 160SE 160SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 72.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 71.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.5N 73.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.7N 75.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.8N 77.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.6N 78.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.0N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 30.0N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 33.5N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 72.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART