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#7257 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 03.Sep.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
1500Z FRI SEP 03 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH
OF FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z..THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 76.7W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
50 KT.......120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 180SE 180SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 76.7W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 76.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.3N 77.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.5N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 33.5N 85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 38.0N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 76.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA