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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#7341 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 03.Sep.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
0300Z SAT SEP 04 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM BONITA BEACH EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REAMINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE
SUWANNEE RIVER.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 77.8W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 95NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.
50 KT.......145NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT.......175NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 180SE 180SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 77.8W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 77.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.5N 78.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 95NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
50 KT...145NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...175NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.0N 79.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 95NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
50 KT...145NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...175NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.6N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...145NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.7N 83.1W...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.9N 86.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 35.0N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 40.0N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 77.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART