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#92L with 40% Odds. Likely to Recurve. #Ophelia Heading to Ireland as a Powerful Post-Tropical Hurricane-Force Storrm
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Nate) , Major: 26 (Maria) Florida - Any: 36 (Irma) Major: 36 (Irma)
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#7410 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 04.Sep.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
1500Z SAT SEP 04 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND AROUND THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO JUST
NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO ST. MARKS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 78.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT.......125NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 180SE 180SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 78.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 78.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.3N 79.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...125NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.0N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...125NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.5N 83.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.5N 85.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.0N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 34.5N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 39.6N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA