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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#7667 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:04 AM 09.Sep.2004)
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT
AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135
KM...NORTHEAST OF ARUBA IN THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES. THIS IS
ALSO ABOUT 570 MILES... 915 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF IVAN SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARUBA AND BONAIRE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA
NEAR JAMAICA.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 160 MPH...255
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A RARE CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 925 MB...27.31 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 925 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART