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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Nate) , Major: 34 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#7856 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 10.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
2100Z FRI SEP 10 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 76.2W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 76.2W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 75.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.7N 77.5W NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.8N 78.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.9N 79.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.3N 81.1W NEARING CUBA
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.7N 82.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 29.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.0N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 76.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA