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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#7931 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 11.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
1500Z SAT SEP 11 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ADJUSTED THEIR
WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 78.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 78.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.5N 79.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.6N 81.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.8N 83.0W INLNAD OVER WSTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 31.5N 83.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 36.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 78.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA