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| #804419 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 01.Oct.2015) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 ...EYE OF JOAQUIN PASSING OVER SAMANA CAYS IN THE BAHAMAS... ...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 73.9W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas now including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in the central Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 73.9 West. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected on Friday, and a faster motion toward the north is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will move near or over portions of the central Bahamas today and tonight and pass near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, with some fluctuations in intensity possible Friday night and Saturday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect other portions of the southeastern Bahamas through tonight. STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas with 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. Outer rain bands of Joaquin may affect portions of eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States today and spread northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
