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| #804422 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 AM 01.Oct.2015) TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI * ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NOW INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 73.9W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..260NE 180SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 73.9W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 73.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.9N 74.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.7N 74.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.2N 74.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.5N 73.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 40.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 73.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
