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| #805847 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 06.Oct.2015) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 Joaquin is in a state of gradual decay. Although an eye feature is still occasionally visible, there has been some erosion of the inner-core deep convection. A series of microwaves images this morning indicate some eastward tilt of the vortex with height, and there is evidence of dry air entrainment into the inner core. Dvorak intensity estimates are slowly decreasing, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 70 kt. An increase in southwesterly shear and cooler waters along Joaquin's track should cause further weakening during the next few days. Cooler and drier air behind a low-level baroclinic zone currently draped to the north of the cyclone should gradually be advected into Joaquin's circulation during the next 24 to 48 hours, and extratropical transition is expected to be complete in about 36 hours. The new intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus through 36 hours and then a bit above that after that time. Recent fixes indicate that Joaquin has is accelerating northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/16. The cyclone is expected to further accelerate toward the east-northeast as it becomes fully embedded in a belt of nearly zonal middle- to upper-tropospheric flow during the next few days. After extratropical transition, Joaquin should experience a significant deceleration when it approaches the British Isles. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours, with somewhat greater spread after that time. The new track forecast is about the same as the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus for the remainder of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 38.3N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 39.5N 55.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 40.8N 48.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 42.0N 40.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 43.3N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 46.2N 21.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 49.3N 14.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z 49.8N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kimberlain |
