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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#8074 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 12.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
0300Z MON SEP 13 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 83.2W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 917 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT.......125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 83.2W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 82.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.8N 84.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.3N 85.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.9N 85.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.8N 86.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 34.0N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 37.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 83.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH