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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#8128 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 13.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
1500Z MON SEP 13 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

AT 1100AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 84.4W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 915 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......125NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 84.4W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 84.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.5N 85.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.2N 86.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.2N 87.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.2N 87.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 125SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 34.0N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 36.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 84.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART