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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#8157 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 13.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
2100Z MON SEP 13 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 84.9W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 912 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 85SE 70SW 75NW.
50 KT.......125NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT.......190NE 175SE 140SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 84.9W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 84.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.7N 85.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT...100NE 85SE 70SW 75NW.
50 KT...125NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...190NE 175SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.2N 86.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT...100NE 85SE 70SW 75NW.
50 KT...125NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...190NE 175SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.1N 87.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT...100NE 85SE 70SW 75NW.
50 KT...125NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...190NE 175SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 28.2N 87.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...190NE 175SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.5N 86.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 125SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 175SE 140SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 34.0N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 36.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 84.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART