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#8236 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 14.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
0900Z TUE SEP 14 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...
INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 86.0W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 924 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 85NE 85SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT.......125NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 125SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 86.0W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 85.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.0N 86.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 85SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...125NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.0N 87.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 85SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...125NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 28.0N 88.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 85SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...125NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.0N 88.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 175SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.5N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 35.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 37.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 86.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

FORECASTER AVILA