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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#8268 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:41 AM 14.Sep.2004)
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IVAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS
FLORIDA...INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...180
KM...NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND 450 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 225 MILES...360 KM.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 925 MB...27.31 INCHES.

THE STORM SURGE AND WAVES IN CUBA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...23.1 N... 86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 925 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN