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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#8327 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 14.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
2100Z TUE SEP 14 2004

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW
ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

AT 4 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS IN MEXICO AND CUBA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 86.6W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......175NE 125SE 75SW 125NW.
34 KT.......225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 86.6W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 86.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.3N 87.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT...175NE 125SE 75SW 125NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.2N 88.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT...175NE 125SE 75SW 125NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.3N 88.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...175NE 125SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 175SE 125SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 86.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN