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#8382 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 14.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
0300Z WED SEP 15 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 87.2W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......175NE 125SE 75SW 125NW.
34 KT.......225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 87.2W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.6N 87.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT...175NE 125SE 75SW 125NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.6N 88.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT...175NE 125SE 75SW 125NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.6N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 125SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.6N 87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.0N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 35.5N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 35.5N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 87.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH