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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#8478 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 AM 15.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
1500Z WED SEP 15 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 88.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
50 KT.......150NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT.......225NE 250SE 150SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 325NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 88.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 87.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.9N 88.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...125NE 200SE 125SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.8N 87.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.0N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 88.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN