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#8543 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 15.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
2100Z WED SEP 15 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 88.3W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
50 KT.......125NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......225NE 250SE 125SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 88.3W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 88.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.2N 88.3W...ON THE COASTLINE
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 250SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 32.2N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 200SE 125SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.8N 87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.0N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 36.0N 84.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 88.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN