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| #858297 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 29.May.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 The much anticipated reduction in Bonnie's forward motion appears to have occurred this afternoon. Since the previous advisory, the tropical cyclone jogged westward and has become nearly stationary just northwest of Charleston, South Carolina. The highest wind observations this afternoon have been 25-30 kt at the Fort Pulaski C-Man site near the Georgia/South Carolina border around 1700 UTC. Since the time, the highest wind reports have been 20-25 kt over water, and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 25 kt for this advisory. Bonnie is expected to meander near the south-central coast of South Carolina overnight, before beginning a northeastward motion on Monday around the northwestern portion of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. In 2 to 3 days, a slightly faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast as the low- to mid-level westerly flow off the Mid-Atlantic coast strengthens. The global models are in generally good agreement of this scenario, but there are some forward speed differences, especially beyond 72 hours. The NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is once again close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus. Since a portion of the circulation is expected to remain over water during the next few days, little change in strength is expected. After exiting the coast of North Carolina in about 72 hours, the cyclone will be moving over cool waters, which should cause Bonnie to become post-tropical. Locally heavy rains continue to be the primary concern from Bonnie. Isolated rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches have already been reported in portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 33.0N 80.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0600Z 33.2N 80.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0600Z 34.0N 78.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1800Z 34.4N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1800Z 35.4N 76.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1800Z 37.0N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1800Z 38.5N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
